1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to systems and methods for the prediction of catastrophic events and, more specifically, to systems and methods for measuring changes in the energy state of regions of the environment caused by impending catastrophic events, and using that information to forecast the time and location of the event.
2. Description of the Related Art
A number of methods and systems for forecasting catastrophic events, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, are known in the prior art. A "catastrophic event" is generally defined as a phenomena that is proceeded by an enormous gain in the energy state of a region of the environment, followed by a sudden or extended release of the energy into the surrounding environment. Thus, the region corresponding to a catastrophic event is ordinarily on the order of hundreds of meters to hundreds of kilometers. Catastrophic events that occur in nature include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornados, tsunamis, etc. Catastrophic events may also be man-made, such as an accident at a nuclear reactor.
Most of the methods and systems for forecasting catastrophic phenomena rely on a relatively narrow and limited body of phenomena relating to a specific catastrophic event. Moreover, many of the methods and systems do not forecast the time of a catastrophic event might occur, only that it is impending.
For example, U.S. Pat. No. 5,387,869 to Enomoto describes electrodes disposed to detect transient electrical currents within the earth that may presage an earthquake. This phenomena, however, is not used to forecast the occurrence of other events such as, for example, a volcanic eruption or tornado. Nor would it give an indication of when the earthquake might occur.
Similarly, U.S. Pat. No. 5,386,114 to Yasunaga describes an apparatus for predicting an earthquake or volcanic eruption by measuring neutron flow of the earth's magma. While an increase in the measurement of the flow purportedly provides advance warning of an earthquake or volcanic eruption, there is no way to tell when it might occur once the flow is observed to increase. In an earlier patent, i.e., U.S. Pat. No. 5,241,175, Yasunaga purports to describe when an earthquake or volcanic eruption will occur. However, the method does nothing more than compare the current neutron flow with a nominal flow. Thus, it would only alert that such an event might be pending, not the particular time it might occur.
U.S. Pat. No. 4,656,867 to Sasaki describes a method to predict when and where an earthquake might occur based on Cirrus cloud formations. It is reported that the earthquake may only be predicted with an accuracy of between one and five days.
U.S. Pat. No. 3,603,951 to Bracken and Lane describes a sensor grid to detect changes in atmospheric conditions. While such a system might be able to predict the approximate time when a severe weather disturbance would impact a particular area, it would not be useful for forecasting other types of catastrophic phenomena that strike suddenly over a wide region, such as an earthquake.
Accordingly, there is a need for a device and method for forecasting a catastrophic event that can accurately predict when and where the catastrophic event will occur.